Cobalt
Table of Contents

⚠ Disclaimer: This entry may be incomplete, out of date, or inaccurate. It is AI-maintained on a best-effort basis. Do not rely on it as a sole source — verify claims independently using the sources listed below.

Summary

Cobalt is a stabilizing component of lithium-ion cathodes (NMC and NCA chemistries) and one of the most supply-concentrated battery minerals. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounted for about 73% of mined supply in 2025 and China for about 79% of refined output. Since February 2025 the DRC has controlled exports first through a ban and then through a quota system run by the state regulator ARECOMS, which drove the metal price up by more than 100% during 2025. Most companies in the batteries research area avoid cobalt through lithium-sulfur, lithium-metal or low-cobalt cathode choices.

Key Facts

  • Chemical formula: Co (atomic number 27)
  • Primary battery uses: Cathode stabilizer in NMC and NCA; not used in LFP, Li-S, or most solid-state lithium-metal designs
  • Demand (2025): 276 kt, up 13%; battery demand 212 kt (about 77% of total), EV demand 113 kt (Cobalt Institute)
  • Mined supply (2025): 270 kt, flat year on year; DRC 73% (down from 77%); Indonesia 42.5 kt (14%), up 29% (Cobalt Institute)
  • USGS estimate (2025e): world mine production about 310,000 t; DRC 230,000 t; Indonesia 44,000 t; reserves about 12 million t, DRC 6 million t (USGS MCS 2026)
  • Refining: about 240 kt in 2025; China 79% of refined production (Cobalt Institute)
  • Market balance (2025): surplus of about 19 kt (about 7% of demand), down from 48 kt in 2024; outside the DRC the balance is a deficit of about 96 kt (Cobalt Institute)
  • Price (2025 change): metal $10.75/lb to $24.75/lb (+130%); hydroxide $5.90/lb to $25.25/lb (+328%) (Cobalt Institute)
  • DRC export regime: ban from 22 February 2025; quotas of 18,125 t for the rest of 2025 and up to 96,600 t per year for 2026 and 2027, of which 87,000 t is allocated to producers pro rata and 9,600 t is a strategic quota held by ARECOMS (USGS MCS 2026, Benchmark)

Major Producers

Company Country Notes
CMOC Group 🇨🇳 China Largest DRC cobalt operator; Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines
Glencore (LSE: GLEN) Switzerland/UK Kamoto Copper Company and Mutanda in the DRC; reportedly received a temporary quota extension in 2026 for logistics bottlenecks
Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) n/a Named among the major DRC quota recipients
Umicore Belgium Cobalt refiner and cathode precursor manufacturer (processor, not a DRC quota holder)

CMOC, Glencore and ERG together control over 60% of permitted export allocations across the five primary Congolese cobalt operations (Congo Mining Network). Indonesian mixed hydroxide (MHP) from nickel HPAL plants is now the second major source and is largely outside the DRC regime.

Supply Chain Position

Cobalt sits at the Raw Materials → Precursor Chemicals layer of the battery supply chain, flowing into NMC and NCA cathode production. Because refining is China-dominated, even DRC material mined by non-Chinese companies passes largely through Chinese refineries before reaching Western cell factories. Cobalt from Indonesia is a by-product of HPAL nickel, so its volume depends on nickel economics; see Nickel and Sulfur.

Why elimination matters for documented companies:

  • Lyten (Li-S chemistry): sulfur cathode and lithium metal anode, so no cobalt by definition.
  • Factorial Energy (FEST® semi-solid): lithium metal anode; the POSCO Future M partnership explores Ultra Hi-Ni single-crystal cathodes that reduce but may not eliminate cobalt.
  • QuantumScape, Solid Power, Adden Energy, ProLogium: lithium metal anodes with cathode chemistries that can be cobalt-free or low-cobalt; commercial-scale cathode specifics are not fully disclosed.
  • Idemitsu Kosan: supplies electrolyte, not cathode; cobalt content depends on Toyota’s cathode choice.
  • Donut Lab: TiO₂ nanostructure design with no cobalt in the cathode (claim as described by the company).

Notable Developments

  • 2026-08-12: ARECOMS chairman tells Fastmarkets quota volumes for 2026–2027 are unchanged for now but a cut may be considered if the imbalance persists; no extra volumes will be authorized. Cobalt hydroxide (30% Co, CIF China) assessed at $22.00–23.00/lb on 11 August versus $26.00–26.25/lb in April. Jinchuan (Musonoi) and MMG (Kinsevere) are among producers seeking higher allocations. (Fastmarkets)
  • 2026-08-06: A DRC ministerial order bans exports of copper and cobalt concentrates and regulates marketable mining product nomenclature. (Capmad)
  • 2026-06-29: ARECOMS announced that January–June export quotas unused by the 30 June deadline are forfeited with no carryforward and move to the strategic quota. (Congo Mining Network)
  • 2026-05: Cobalt Institute’s 2025 market report puts the 2025 surplus at about 19 kt and Indonesia’s 42.5 kt as likely larger than DRC export volumes in 2025. (Cobalt Institute)
  • 2026-01: The 18,125 t left unused from the 2025 quota rolled into 2026. (Cobalt Institute)
  • 2025-10-16: DRC lifted the export ban and moved to monthly quota-based allocations running through 2027, adjustable if officials judge the market imbalanced. (Benchmark)
  • 2025-02-22: DRC suspended cobalt exports to address oversupply and low prices. (Cobalt Institute)

Geopolitical Risk Assessment

Cobalt carries the most acute concentration risk of the battery minerals, at three levels: geography (the DRC), processing (China, about 79% of refining) and policy (a state-run export quota that can be tightened). Benchmark expects stocks outside the DRC to fall to roughly one month of demand by Q4 2026, with possible demand destruction in late 2027 if ARECOMS releases its full strategic quota and exempted producers do not fill the gap (Benchmark). Indonesian by-product supply partly offsets the DRC but is exposed to HPAL sulfur costs; S&P Global reports that cobalt price gains offset higher sulfur costs for HPAL producers in 2025 (S&P Global).

The industry response has been structural: LFP (cobalt-free), high-nickel low-cobalt NMC, and solid-state or Li-S chemistries. For advanced battery developers, being cobalt-free is increasingly a supply chain argument as well as a chemistry one.

Sources

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